6 into 1 won't go

The men's draw at the US Open is beautifully set up this year. For the first time in ages, the natural hierarchy seems unclear, with Nadal's prolonged absence qualifying both the rankings and the achievements of Roger Federer and Andy Murray. But it's impossible to say how much.

Right the way down to Del Potro at No. 6, the rankings don't tell the full story. If the Argentine can overhaul his fitness, he should emerge as the main challenger to Murray and Nadal in the longterm. Roddick is in his best run of form since winning the US aged 19, and his resurgence marks a genuine development of his game. Djokovic is stagnating but not regressing, while Nadal at No. 3 looks like a misprint. Murray is probably the most consistent player on the Tour, but has developed an unfortunate knack of bringing out the very best in opponents at crucial points in Slams - for Verdasco in Melbourne, read Gonzalez at Roland Garros and Roddick at Wimbledon. Coasting through the early rounds of majors will start to look ominous if he continues this pattern. A first Grand Slam win may open the floodgates - he seems to have the determination to overhaul a waning Federer, but probably not the aggression to better a fully fit Nadal. So each would be king, but it's hard to see who should be.

Federer's case is the most interesting. It seems bizarre in the context of his achievements and previous invincibility that he could now be No. 1 without really deserving it, as he's quite keen on reminding everyone. The gracious, easy figure of old has faded away both on and off the court, replaced by a man who not only believes his own headlines, but seems quite keen on writing them. Nominally world No. 1, "RF" has won ugly this year against a depleted field, but you won't catch him acknowledging it. Instead he repeatedly places lucky escapes and strangled victories in the context of what he calls his "crazy" achievements. It would be no great surprise to see him enter Center Court next week on a horse-drawn cart in the shape of a '16'. This need to frame his own legacy is a habit that has developed as his grip on power has loosened. Anyone who saw him sunken after the Australian Open final knows that Nadal has got inside his head, and that the two subsequent major wins were by default. It is of course true that you can only beat who's put in front of you, but it's equally true that you can acknowledge a crucially weakened field in the moment of victory.

Who will be on top one year from now? Any from Del Potro, Murray, Nadal and Federer seems equally plausible, with Djokovic needing fresh impetus and Roddick probably having reached his personal xenith. It's exciting, it starts next week, and it is to be hoped that Nadal returns to form, so that whoever is world No. 1 can wear his crown with undisputed pride.

Barc-ing mad

Apparently Barcelona have just signed Zlatan Ibrahimovic for £40m plus Samuel Eto'o. Plus Samuel Eto'o? Until now I've nobly resisted the urge to huff and puff about this summer's transfer activity, but this one is priceless.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is 27 years old and has long shown great promise, but only recently delivered on the biggest stages. He has a suspect temperament, a bulletproof ego and a rare talent for irritating his teammates. Samuel Eto'o is 28 years old, and also a bit of a divisive character. As well as a three-time African player of the year with 2 Champions Leagues, 3 La Ligas and countless personal accolades to his name.

Ibrahimovic was the major disappointment in Inter's Champions League last-16 defeat to United last season, with Vidic and Ferdinand easily containing him over the two legs. Eto'o sliced open the United defence to kickstart a sublime victory for Barcelona in the final, and deliver the trophy to Catalonia. It completed a memorable season in which he was second top scorer in Spain, behind his strike partner Leo Messi.

Paying £40m to break that up is just bonkers. For all the crackpot posturing of Real Madrid, at least you could see the rationale - it was just the scale that seemed mad. This one's a complete anomaly.

It's shows how small differences in perception can result in such huge financial swings at the upper end of the transfer market. Eto'o may have only a year left on his contract, but at full tilt Man City would have paid £40m for him alone. Someone in the Barca camp has clearly become fixated with Ibrahimovic and pursued him 'at any cost'.

This 'at any cost' mentality has been the distinctive feature of the big hitters in the transfer market this summer. It's as if Fred the Shred has started giving summer schools in football investment - the fact of the purchase is becoming more important than the sense of it. Certainly, City seem intent on making marquee signings rather than building a team. So far they've succeeded only in mopping up the problem children of the Premiership, paying last summer's prices for players who have had disappointing seasons. And they've been snubbed by the real big guns - the more cash City throw at players to entice them to come, the cheaper they look. No such problems at Real, who are at least targeting the very finest - although £30m for a 27 year-old Alonso is a dubious call.

Thankfully, the big English clubs have been notable this summer for their scorn of the 'at any cost' approach. Ferguson and Benitez both explicitly refused to get caught up in an overheated market, Wenger is Wenger and Chelsea are proving themselves reassuringly unattractive to everyone except John Terry. It might be less fun now, but at least they've not saddled themselves with Franck Ribery for £70m.

Warne's commentary reveals what Australia missed

Listening to Shane Warne's television commentary is a rare treat. Offering the layman an insight into a cricket genius , it backs up the widely-held belief that he's the best captain Australia never had. As he did on the pitch, in the box he operates on a completely different plane to his colleagues - holding several scenarios and field placings in his head simultaneously, playing two or three balls ahead. You can see why he's so good at poker.

As a rule, former captains make the best commentators. Looking at the current Sky team - Atherton, Hussain, Gower, Botham, Holding, Willis (with Vaughan blatantly waiting in the wings) - they've all done a good stint at the helm, but only Nasser comes close to Warne with his insights. And he was probably the best skipper of that crop. Hussain's analysis is excellent - he untangles the game, with a more forensic, mechanical approach than Warne. The Australian is a lot more fun - hyperactive and scheming, with an amazing, infectious enthusiasm. Hussain had a reputation as a humourless, authoritarian captain (which was why Vaughan made such a welcome change), and although he's mellowed you can still see it. The man's intense. For all Warne's famous indiscretions - the Sky team noticeably wince whenever he strays off cricket - knowing when to have a laugh is as important as knowing when to put the squeeze on. He can definitely do both.

Listening to Warne first-hand is also interesting in light of Ponting's much-debated captaincy. Looking on, Warne is constantly second-guessing and exposing Ricky Ponting's plodding, reactive captaincy, his irritation at his former skipper thinly veiled. They're said to have feuded over Ponting's decision-making in the past, and it must have been intensely frustrating for Warne to have had the guile but not the authority to hammer through an advantage. That's what Warne is all about - constantly scenting an opening, an advantage of any form - the spinner building pressure with dot balls, the skipper's field placing deliberately inviting a repeat of a well-executed boundary. His mind is almost telepathically attuned to weakness. Apparently Warne had a natural instinct for which players could be effectively sledged and which were impregnable. But he used it judiciously, not for it's own sake, and constantly kept his eyes on the prize. If there is such a thing as 'the spirit of cricket', I reckon that's it.

Basically, Shane Warne's highly intelligent in a very specific way, and I find that utterly fascinating. His commentary opens up areas of the game most people would never even think about. Given what his generation of Australians achieved in any case, it's probably best he never did get a run as captain.

Nggggggghhhhhhh....

Ridiculous. A little caution is needed to see England through an unexpectedly dicey period after a glorious morning. So why is Matt Prior flirting needlessly with one of Mitchell Johnson's three good balls of the day? And then looking astonished when it skittles him?

Prior, like Ravi Bopara and to a lesser extent Kevin Pietersen, is fantastic to watch when he's on song, but they simply have to be more adaptable. The refusal to acknowledge a change in situation by knuckling down for a few overs amounts to a technical failing. Bopara came flying out of the blocks with some typically fluid drives after lunch, but it was all so cavalier - watching it you knew he wouldn't last long. I don't want to come over all Boycott here, but he's batting at No. 3 in the Ashes - it's a lynch-pin position, take it seriously.

The point of Test cricket is that it ebbs and flows, and good players negotiate these changes by moving up and down the gears, not just ploughing on regardless. Pietersen's talk of "just playing my natural game" is meaningless - if your natural game has only one dimension, however attractive or entertaining, then it's too limited. Paul Collingwood should have a word, although perhaps not today.

The Australians can't believe their luck. Just as in Cardiff, the England middle order have given their wickets away and let them back into a match that should have been secured by lunchtime tomorrow. England will be lucky to top 450 here. From there, you can see the Australians reminding them that it's a tame batting wicket, and that with a bit of concentration you can happily bat the other side out of the game.

Ah Freddie

It was coming. Given the four-year waiting game he's played with his fitness, Andrew Flintoff's retirement should come as little surprise. The force of a 17-stone juggernaut hammering in at 90mph must take its toll on the pitch, let alone the man himself. Perversely, his ability and enthusiasm may have shortened his career - Sourav Ganguly reckons England's dependency on his ability to swing a game meant he was overworked.

Freddie's made light of his fragility before, suggesting his surgeon fit a zip in his ankle for easy access, but today there's an air of relief to his admission that the 'decision was pretty much forced upon me'. For England, it may prove a watershed. At least now everyone - him, selectors, captain and fringe bowlers - has a clearer idea of where they stand, and can build for the future rather than constantly hedging their bets against his body.

And in reality, Freddie's no longer the fulcrum of the side. We don't have a talisman right now, so we kid ourselves he's still the powerhouse of old, but there's scant evidence for it. England have already been forced to adapt to life without him, but it's been a clumsy and stunted transition from the pomp of 2004-5. It might remain incomplete with a half-fit Flintoff trading on the past and constantly promising to return.

During that period, he was the kind of player you couldn't help but like - dopey, brilliant, committed and entertaining - and we wanted to slap his face on banknotes and his body in Madam Tussauds and talk about his spirit being 'what made Britain great' and all sorts of nonsense. On reflection, he achieved the presence of a true great, but not the consistency. He really did make things happen at crucial points, but his figures (averages of 31.69 with the bat and 32.51 with the ball) betray the fact that our memory is coloured by one magical summer. He more than anyone else delivered that series, including that ridiculous over at Edgbaston, and for all that we owe him big. There's no-one in the England team remotely like him, and he'll be missed.

Ronaldo has a long way to fall...

I've a wee hunch that Cristiano Ronaldo may struggle at Real Madrid. The setup at the Bernabeu is different to the protective, indulgent environment he enjoyed at Old Trafford. There, he was the focal point of a team of workhorses who were happy to let him put the gloss on a rounded team effort. In Spain, the hierarchy will be less clear - he will be amongst equals whose games also depend on freedom and possession, and he is unlikely to define the team ethic in the same way. Thierry Henry struggled with a similar adjustment throughout his first season at Barcelona. It is difficult to see Kaka, Sneijder et al kowtowing to Ronaldo, regardless of his price tag.

At United, Ronaldo was able to straddle so many roles - winger, striker, playmaker, target man - because the side's one glaring weakness was the lack of an out-and-out striker. His brilliance turned this into a strength. Being able to fill both roles at once made him impossible to pin down, and gave him space to charge at defenders. In Madrid, however, he'll face competition for the link role from Kaka, while the main striker's position is occupied by the iconic - although diminished - Raul, new boy Karim Benzema, and Ruud van Nistlerooy, whom he never clicked with in Manchester. Indeed, it was only with the Dutchman's departure that Ronaldo began to truly flourish, and the same may be true this summer. Regardless, Ronaldo is likely to play as a more conventional - and restricted - winger than he's grown used to, and this may stifle his ability to dictate games as did at United. Likewise, his tendency to give the ball away cheaply may not be tolerated to the same extent. Ronaldo's natural selfishness was disguised by his overall output in his latter years at Utd. But if the returns start to drop, the old criticism of his peacocking and showboating not amounting to much may return. In short, he may fail at Madrid (by his own high standards) for the very reason that Ferguson decided to let him leave United - because it's not the Cristiano Ronaldo show.

Having said all that, Ronaldo's defining characteristic is his determination, which outstrips even his ego, and he may well kick on again and achieve enduring greatness. Either outcome would make for fascinating viewing for English fans, whom he left with respect but little genuine affection.

Summer exodus?

The summer transfer window looks more like a drain this year, and it runs directly into the Real Madrid changing room. No sooner has Ronaldo finished upstaging Kaka with a welcoming party of 80,000 fans who collectively love him almost as much as he does, than Man Utd's chief target Karim Benzema signs up for £30m, and reveals he snubbed United in the process. Fiorentino Perez' concentration of talent at the Bernabeu is noisily redrawing the European footballing balance of power, and it leaves the Premiership looking a little less sparkly than it's supposed to. Michael Owen to Manchester looks like a smart piece of business for both parties, and Valencia is a solid buy, but but neither has diverted attention from the fact that Sir Alex has £80m in the bank and no-one to spend it on. Which is ultimately a touch embarrassing.

The rest of the big four have either been snubbed, or preoccupied with hanging onto their remaining stars. Chelsea's fruitless pursuit of Pato, Pirlo and Ribery tells its own story - today they are a club with clout, but not one that many boys grow up dreaming of playing for. And the best of the few that did, John Terry, looks like he might hoof off to Man City for a payday even Abramovich would baulk at. Benitez has been reduced to crabbing about Gareth Barry doing much the same, and fending off Spanish overtures for Alonso and Mascherano. Arsene Wenger looked like he might finally concede something to experience this year, but his reluctance to invest in a marquee signing to bolster a talented but apparently restless young squad may yet see his prized assets go the way of Mathieu Flamini.

Whatever one thinks of their dominance, the big four's recent ability to attract the finest foreign players has driven the Premier League's development into the biggest and best league in the world. This one way traffic away from England means that unless new stars emerge to cushion the loss of the old, La Liga will reassert itself as European football's premier stage.